Fighting in Mogadishu has left over 300 dead and wounded in the last week. Al Shabaab is determined to take control of the entire city, but is stymied by the 6,000 AU (African Union) peacekeepers. Al Shabaab has a temporary advantage in that its leaders are fanatics and use lethal force to deal with internal disputes. Long term, this creates more determined foes within Somalia. This pattern played itself out in Afghanistan during the 1990s, even to the extent that the Taliban, like al Shabaab, used a unit of al Qaeda gunmen to administer the more grisly discipline on disobeying locals. To Somalis, the al Qaeda are just another bunch of troublesome foreigners. The big advantage of al Shabaab is that their leaders are less corrupt, and get more out of the cash they receive from Iran and Islamic "charities," plus the bribes extorted from aid organizations.
AU (African Union) leaders are meeting in Uganda resort for a scheduled conference. Security is higher than usual because of the recent Islamic terror bombing in the capital. Naturally, the big topic is Somalia, and Uganda's call for more nations to send troops to Somalia. Guinea has already pledged a battalion (800-1,000 troops). The Guinean battalion, plus another 2,000 troops Uganda has offered to send, could bring the peacekeeping force up to 9,000 by next month. Uganda is waiting for the AU to approve more aggressive "peacekeeping." This may happen in the next week.
IN 2006, the Bush administration declared Somalia the latest front in the war on terrorism: a newly influential movement, the Union of Islamic Courts, was suspected of playing host to Al Qaeda there. When this union took over the capital in June 2006, the United States tried to coax moderates within it to enter a dialogue with Somalia’s official government, a toothless institution that was exiled from the capital. But by December of that year, when the Islamic courts seemed about to take down the government entirely, neighboring Ethiopia convinced United States officials that allowing the courts to control Somalia would be tantamount to handing the country to Al Qaeda.
And so, the Ethiopian military moved into Somalia to protect the unpopular government, and for the next two years the United States bankrolled a brutal occupation. Today, no one doubts that this was a tragic error. To defend the dysfunctional government, Ethiopian soldiers robbed, killed and raped with abandon. The perception that the United States had sided with Ethiopia and the African Union internationalized the conflict. Ultimately it allowed Al Qaeda to gain a foothold in a country that American intelligence, in 2007, had declared to be “inoculated” against all kinds of foreign extremist movements.
Sadly, today, the Obama administration is poised to repeat its predecessor’s mistake.
Piracy is major problem for Somalia and the world.
Radical Islamist insurgents in Somalia seized one of the country’s most notorious pirate dens on Sunday, raising questions about whether rebels with connections to Al Qaeda will now have a pipeline to tens of millions of dollars — and a new ability to threaten global trade.
Dozens of insurgents stormed into Xarardheere, a pirate cove on the central Somali coast, around noon, but instead of putting up a fight, the pirates sped off. According to witnesses, several pirate bosses raced out of town in luxury four-by-four trucks, with TVs packed in the back and mattresses strapped on top. Islamist fighters in a fleet of heavily armed pickup trucks then occupied the strategic points in town, including the defunct police station and several crossroads.
What will happen next is not clear. Two of Somalia’s biggest problems and its most troubling exports — Islamist extremism and piracy — seem to be crashing into each other.
For several years, an intense civil war has raged in the country between a weak United States-backed government and radical Islamist groups that are trying to overthrow it. The ensuing lawlessness has given rise to a thriving piracy trade, in which Somali thugs in small skiffs have commandeered some of the biggest vessels on the sea, including a 1,000-foot-long oil tanker.
Although Puntland is the home of the largest pirate bases, the elected government of Puntland continues to deny that it is in any way condoning piracy. But it is known that all of the 40 or so pirate gangs on the Somali coast, pay protection money to local militias, be they Puntland security forces or al Shabaab Islamic terrorists. Meanwhile, the two statelets that comprise northern Somalia have been better governed since breaking away from Somalia in the 1990s to form Puntland (2.5 million people) and Somaliland (3.5 million). The other two-thirds of the Somali population to the south, has been in perpetual chaos since 1990. But now, the tribal (clan) agreements that brought peace, and created the two governments, are unraveling. Somaliland is sliding towards civil war, while Puntland has been split between those who back (and profit from) the pirates, and those that don't. The result is no power that can stop the pirates.
The anti-piracy patrol has destroyed one mother ship a day so far this month, but naval commanders are increasingly frustrated by the "catch and release" policy they have been ordered to follow. Attempts to have captured pirates tried by local governments (Puntland, Kenya, Seychelles) have not worked out. The local court systems are too corrupt, and inefficient, to handle the number of pirates caught. The new policy of aggressively seeking out and destroying mother ships has made it more difficult for the pirates to go deep into the Indian ocean (more than a thousand kilometers from the coast) to seek unsuspecting tankers or cargo ships to capture. Somali pirates have been detected operating more than 2,000 kilometers from Somalia, between the Persian Gulf and the west coast of India. Tankers coming out of the Persian Gulf are now swinging more to the east if they are going south and around Africa.
Skirmishing continues in Mogadishu, with pro-government militias, newly formed police units and AU peacekeepers fight al Shabaab gunmen. A dozen or so casualties a day, most of them civilians, are the main result. There is similar fighting to the north and west of Mogadishu as al Shabaab tries to conquer towns controlled local clans and Sufi militias.
Internally displaced Somalis wait in line to receive cooked meals distributed by a local Somali NGO in partnership with the World Food Program in a camp on the outskirt of Mogadishu on March 21. (Photo: Mustafa Abdi/ AFP-Getty Images)
While the current Somali transitional government is by no means perfect, there are at least a couple of things it has been doing right: putting in place various apparatuses to pave the way for good governance, and laying the foundation to reestablish law and order. Granted, these two developments are moving at a snail's-pace.
Furthermore, these kinds of developments are not as captivating as instances of lawlessness, corruption, violence and piracy, thus they seldom get reported. When it comes to news, especially as it pertains to other non-ally countries, there seems to be a prevalent norm that gravitates toward the negative.
Because of this, one is likely to have a blurred picture of the reality on the ground. Some policy advocates are so credulously misinformed, they declare Somalia a hopeless case. The United States and international community tend toward disengaging and leaving the country to its own diabolical vices.
One of the main factors that caused the failure of the so-called global War on Terrorism was the fact that it ignored how the feeling of hopelessness inspires desperate and destructive acts. As an individual grows more dangerous when consumed by a sense of hopelessness, so do groups and nations.
Islamic radical groups Al Shabaab and Hizbul Islam have raised millions of dollars and hundreds of recruits from Somali expatriates in the West. This is done via the Internet, where the Islamic radicals portray themselves as dashing fighters for a united (as a religious dictatorship) Somalia. The religious dictatorship (an "Islamic Republic") is important, because any other form of government would have to deal with tribal and clan politics, which makes it much more difficult to establish unity. In fact, Somalis have never been able to establish a united government on their own. Meanwhile, Somalis and non-Somalis alike agree that the piracy problem can only be eliminated once a real government is established. Many nations would prefer a religious dictatorship, if it weren't for the fact that this would provide a base for al Qaeda and other international terrorists. Moreover, even the Islamic radical groups are divided by factionalism and this leads to fighting between these groups. So the situations looks a bit hopeless at the moment.
Lesser fund raising and recruiting results are obtained from the Somali community in Kenya, but that country also provides a sanctuary for the families of Islamic radicals who can afford to park them there.
Drought, violence is causing farmers not farm and many Somalis are going hungry and need assistance from international aid agencies.
A United Nations report leaked last week revealed that as much as half of the food aid being sent to Somalia never gets to those in need, but instead vanishes into the hands of corrupt contractors, distributors, armed militias, and even UN workers.
Coming on the heels of recent allegations that much of the money raised by the Band Aid trust in 1985 was also diverted, the UN report could prove to be the final straw for some donors. Why give if your money is being stolen, or even used to fuel the very conflicts that are creating humanitarian crises?
Here's the answer: Because a drying-up of donations would be a tragedy of truly huge proportions. Around the world, millions of people need the help of the international community to survive.
Even a temporary suspension of food aid can cause serious problems. In Somalia, a million people went hungry when the UN's World Food Program decided it had to halt operations in the southern part of the country.
There is nothing Somali about this violence. Our plight isn't insuperable, but we do need more help.
A little over a year ago, I was elected president of a country that many consider the most dangerous in the world. Over the last 20 years, Somalia has been synonymous with war and displacement. Now terrorism and piracy have been added to this list – and they threaten death and destruction far beyond our borders.
Let me begin by emphasising that however bad the situation looks, Somalia is not the "failed" state of popular imagination. Somalis are resilient and committed to peace, and sickened by the nihilistic violence of the extremists who last month announced an alliance with al-Qaida to wreak havoc across east Africa.
There is nothing Somali about the violence afflicting our country. The extremists are waging war against our Somali flag, our Somali values and our religion. Witness their values: they blew up a graduation ceremony on 3 December last year, killing young Somali doctors, graduates and four government ministers. They are preventing the UN World Food Programme providing humanitarian assistance to thousands of Somalis in desperate need. It seems these extremists will stop at nothing.
Somalian Prime Minister Abdurashid Ali Shermarke (R), and Somalian President Aden Abdullah Osman Daar in July 1960
NAIROBI — When Virginio Bresolin passed away recently in Merka, a coastal Somali city run by Al Qaeda-inspired rebels, so did the last of a generation of Italians who emigrated under Mussolini.
He worked as a blacksmith, spoke fluent Somali and rusty Italian, and few people noticed when he died.
Fifty years after independence, indifference characterises how most feel about the former colonial ruler of Somalia, a country where 60 percent of the population is under 18 and 80 percent has known nothing but conflict.
Abdullahi Halane Mohamoud, a 62-year-old Merka resident, hardly takes issue with the Italians invading in the first place but only seems to regret that there wasn't more in it for Somalis.
Three hijackings by pirates already this year highlight the profound weakness of the international naval force tasked with patrolling the waters along the coast of lawless Somalia. Pirates kidnapped and now hold at least 100 crewpersons from just those ships—and over 300 hostages since April. The pirates’ release Thursday, after receiving a ransom, of the 30-person crew of a Taiwanese fishing boat, held for 10 months, again puts the issue into the headlines.
The charged Detroit-bound failed airline bomber, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, was allegedly trained in Yemen, an Arab country located directly across from Somalia over the Gulf of Aden, at the entrance to the Red Sea and gateway to the Indian Ocean. Yemen’s oil supply is estimated to run out in seven years, and its potable water in five. Yemen’s government is in danger of becoming a failed state, as weak as neighbor Somalia.
Riad Kahwaji, founder of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai, told NPR that Yemen’s “position, if it becomes a failed state, will turn the piracy problem into a nightmare.” For Yemen not to become an even larger source of piracy than Somalia, it’s time to learn from and address the Somali piracy issue.
U.S. and European Union warships have been patrolling Somali waters for a year now. Somali pirates are responsible for 39 of the 41 successful hijackings by pirates worldwide in 2009. They made an estimated $150 million in ransom in 2008. As certain as there is more money to be made, more hijackings will occur.
Are some ship masters rolling the dice as they pass through pirate infested waters to save operating costs? Are ship masters intentionally taking the path of least resistance and ignoring Best Management Practices to Deter Piracy in the Gulf of Aden and off the Coast of Somalia? It's something we've been looking at when combing through data of successful pirate attacks. So, too, have the folks at Strategy Page.
In a recent post, Strategy Page points out that about a quarter of the ships passing through these waters are gambling with the safety and well-being of their ships and crews to save time and what can amount to tens of thousands of dollars in operating costs. In doing so, they increase the pirates' chances of successfully hijacking their ship from 1 in 500 to 1 in 200. At a press conference on February 2nd, Rear Admiral Peter Hudson, Commander of EU NAVFOR Somalia, highlighted the fact that many of the ships hijacked were not registered with theMaritime Security Centre (Horn of Africa), were not reporting to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) office in Dubai, and were not following best management practices.
As the world's attention turns momentarily to Yemen, the west must look beyond short-term aid to building lasting solutions.
Next week's "high-level" international summit on Yemen is likely to follow a pattern familiar to those who have watched countless similar conferences on the Somalia crisis in years past.
High-minded dignitaries will fly into London from around the world, millions in aid will be pledged and a pre-prepared statement will be issued at the end of the deliberations saying all the right things about how important a country Yemen is and how committed the "international community" is to finding a solution to the country's myriad of problems.
The lesson from Somalia is that very little will in fact change on the ground one year after the summit. Take the most recent EU-UN donors' conference on Somalia held in Brussels last April.
In Yemen, Somalia and beyond, the lawless, strife-torn region has provided disturbing evidence that its myriad problems cannot be ignored – and that the west must see the connections between them all
It looked like many of the dhows that sail the Gulf of Aden, a nameless boat identifiable only by its registration number – 11S2. This dhow, however, was not carrying fish, or even engaged in the lethal people smuggling trade conducted across these waters.
Tracked by Yemeni intelligence officials, it was laden with a quite different cargo that had been loaded at Hes Bes on Somalia's arid coastline.
When it was boarded late last year by Yemeni coastguards, the ship's captain and his crew of 12 were discovered to be ferrying arms into a country already awash with weapons. About 60 million handguns, at the last count, arm a population of 21 million people in Yemen. The arms traffic is hardly one-way. Indeed, Yemeni ships are more often smuggling arms in the opposite direction, to fuel the terrible conflict in Mogadishu and south central Somalia.
IDPs waiting to get handout from international aid agencies.
Look at the countries at the heart of the war against Al Qaeda: Afghanistan, Yemen, Pakistan, Iraq, and Somalia. These countries share a common struggle against yet another enemy, a foe more powerful and resilient than terrorism: hunger and poverty.
Lack of food, water, and development do not bode well for a country resisting terrorism within its borders.
Recently, Col. Scott Anderson of the U.S. Army Reserves penned an op-ed in the Bismarck Tribune about the hunger and poverty he witnessed in Afghanistan. Anderson wrote that “such conditions create a weakened state that can allow extremist ideologies to take hold.”
Another report from Captain James Smith of the South Carolina Army National Guard comments on the importance of aid programs for Afghanistan. Smith writes that “a solid, unbiased development assistance plan not only improved the perception of the United States, it also helped create an environment that was less vulnerable to terrorists.”
Only one in 10 Somali children go to school, says Save the Children Foundation [GALLO/GETTY]
In his testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on May 21, 2009, Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, set a broad agenda for Afghanistan from which Senator Corker interpreted that Mullen was calling for "nation-building".
Mullen was asked why the US was focusing on Afghanistan while al-Qaeda has spread its wings throughout the region, including Yemen and Somalia.
Mullen responded that Afghanistan is critical because that is where it all began.
If you think that the fight against piracy can be won at sea, think again. Dozens of warships, helicopter gunships and now spy drones will not stop the Somali pirates who have extended their range so far that recent attacks have taken place closer to India than Africa. They now hunt across a million square miles of water from the Gulf of Aden deep into the Indian Ocean. And there is no shortage of desperate young Somali men willing to join the pirate gangs in the hope of earning enough ransom money to escape Somalia’s Hobbesian dystopia.
Even the commander of the European Union anti-piracy force admits that he has an impossible job. “In a piece of ocean that large we will never close down pirates who are determined to operate up to a thousand miles off the coast of Somalia,” Rear-Admiral Peter Hudson said during a recent visit to Nairobi. “We need to be alive to that reality.”
Patrols can work in constrained areas — for example, the Gulf of Aden, where the EU says there have been no hijackings since July — but this has simply pushed the pirates farther out to sea where pickings are just as rich.
