Al Shabaab has become more radical, as it kills or drives away more moderate members. The more radical fighting force is an advantage, because the gunmen tend to be more fearless, although still just as inept as their Somali opponents. Al Shabaab is recruiting more suicide bombers, which are an intimidating weapon. Such fanatic, if unfocused, efforts are an ancient Somali tradition, and Somalis can relate to it. But an equally true item from Somali history is that trained troops eventually defeat the wild men. Al Shabaab plays that down, preferring to believe that, since they are on a Mission From God, the Lord Will Provide some kind of miracle. This only happens in the fairy tales, not the history books.

Government officials speak openly of the offensive they are preparing, to force al Shabaab fighters from Mogadishu. Not everything the officials say can be believed. There is talk of over 10,000 trained government fighters ready for action. While thousands of volunteers have been trained outside the country, this has not translated into anything like 10,000 organized troops. Maybe half that, and their reliability depends a lot on how reliable their leaders are. Not a lot to be optimistic about on that issue. Normally, government officials try to steal the payroll, which has a negative effect on the troops. Foreign aid donors have tried to impress on transitional government officials how important it is to spend the aid money wisely, and not just steal it. It's unclear if this message is understood, and as a result, much promised aid money (over $200 million worth) has not been spent yet. But the Somalis believe the Americans will be their secret weapon, providing air reconnaissance and smart bombs. The U.S. is also considering providing trainers for Somali police and troops. Intelligence information is apparently being given to the government, but smart bombs are another matter. These require American air controllers on the ground, in order to avoid a lot of civilian casualties. Helping out in Somalia is always a tricky business, which often backfires on the donors. Meanwhile, the U.S. has provided a lot of logistical and intel support for the AU peacekeepers, who are a lot more reliable and professional than any Somali forces. The AU often pass American intel onto the Somali government forces. Thousands of Somalis have been trained, during the last few months, in Djibouti and Kenya.

The anti-pirate patrol is apparently going after pirate mother ships that are trying to move far out to sea. These vessels (usually stolen sea-going fishing ships) are spotted leaving known pirate bases, and, when they leave coastal waters, are intercepted by a warship. If weapons and boarding equipment is found, the pirates are arrested, and the mother ships and speedboats destroyed. The anti-piracy forces have a considerable maritime reconnaissance force of aircraft and UAVs, plus the occasional use of photo satellites. Thus it is difficult for the pirates to head out for the high seas without being spotted. The pirates are no doubt trying to come up with some new tactic to get around this.

More merchant ships are carrying armed guards, and there have been at least four incidents this year where these guards fired their weapons to drive off pirates.

Source: strategypage.com